[Early] Fall 2025 Housing & Economy Snapshot: Sustainability Meets Slowdown

Canada’s economy is at a pivotal moment. Inflation has cooled below 2%, the Bank of Canada has trimmed rates to 2.5%, and yet unemployment is rising while GDP growth remains fragile. In this episode, we break down what Fall 2025 really means for homebuyers, sellers, and investors in the GTA.

Ciao! Welcome to a new episode of Building Wealth Through Real Estate...Brick by Brick with me, Nico James-Bock, Founder of The CondoWiz™ Group and Broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto.  

We’ll cover:

• How sustainability and supply chain shifts are shaping housing construction timelines and costs.
• Why GTA sales-to-new-listings ratios and months of inventory point to a buyer-skewed market.
• The latest on mortgage rates, bond yields, and what to expect after the October 29th Bank of Canada announcement.
• How federal initiatives like the Build More Homes plan, rental rebates, and infrastructure funds are designed to unlock new supply.

Whether you’re an investor eyeing opportunities, a homeowner looking to sell and/or refinance, or a first-time buyer hoping for affordability, this episode gives you the insights you need to build wealth through real estate at Canada’s economic crossroads.

We’ll revisit when September’s stats are released and after the Bank of Canada’s October 29th announcement. If you found this helpful, like and share this episode. And I’d love to hear your thoughts—whether you’ve got a mortgage renewal coming up, are wondering about affordability, or just want to share your take on the market. Ciao for now!

Transcript

Where do things stand as summer turns to fall? Today we’ll look at what falling inflation, a cautious Bank of Canada, and a buyer-tilted GTA market mean for real estate heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Welcome back to another episode of Helping You Build Wealth Through Real Estate, Brick by Brick. I’m Nico James-Bock, broker at Keller Williams Co-Elevation Realty in Toronto and founder of the CondoWiz Group.

Let’s start with Canada’s macro check-in. Inflation came in at 1.9% year-over-year in August—still below the 2% to 3% range we saw through much of the first half of the year. GDP grew 0.2% month-over-month in July after three weak months, while early data for August shows the economy was basically flat. Unemployment sits at 7.1%, with youth unemployment especially elevated.

The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.5% on September 17th. The next announcement is October 29th, paired with the Monetary Policy Report. The message for now? Move carefully, keep an eye on inflation, and watch growth closely.

Global logistics have largely normalized, but trade frictions remain. Manufacturing is wobbling, with August factory sales down about 1.5%. Recent tariffs are adding uncertainty. Why does this matter for real estate investors? Calmer supply chains ease pressure on goods inflation, which gives the Bank of Canada more room to lower rates—supporting affordability and investment returns.

Looking at the GTA market pulse for late summer: August sales were up 2.3% to 5,211 units. New listings jumped to 14,038, while active listings climbed to nearly 27,500. The average price sat just over $1,022,000, about 5% lower year-over-year. Sales-to-new-listings were around 37%, with 5.3 months of inventory—clear buyer-leaning conditions. Much of that inventory is in the condo sector, and it could take about a year to absorb. Preliminary September numbers show further softening as we head deeper into the fall market.

On the financing side, the 5-year bond yield sits at 2.76% as of late September, anchoring fixed mortgages. Average 5-year fixed rates are around 4.7%, with some bank specials closer to 4.6%. Variables range from 3.6% to just over 4%. If the Bank of Canada signals more easing on October 29th, watch for fixed rates to drift lower—but spreads could widen if investor sentiment turns cautious.

A quick look back: rates peaked at 5% in April 2024 during the tightening cycle. Since then, they’ve gradually eased down to today’s 2.5%.

Now, what’s Ottawa doing to help supply? The federal government has rolled out several initiatives. The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund—$6 billion over 10 years—targets water, sewer, and enabling infrastructure. There’s a 100% GST/HST rebate for new purpose-built rentals that start after September 13, 2023 and complete before 2036. The Apartment Construction Loan Program received a $15 billion boost in Budget 2024, with added support for innovative and above-shop builds. And the Public Lands for Homes initiative has created a Public Land Bank and a $500 million acquisition fund to unlock sites while keeping units affordable through lease models.

That wraps up this episode of Helping You Build Wealth Through Real Estate, Brick by Brick. As we move further into fall 2025, easing rates, government housing programs, and a buyer-friendly GTA market give us reason for cautious optimism. With the right strategy, today’s crossroads can still open doors to tomorrow’s opportunities.

We’ll revisit when September’s stats are released and after the Bank of Canada’s October 29th announcement. If you found this helpful, like and share this episode. And I’d love to hear your thoughts—whether you’ve got a mortgage renewal coming up, are wondering about affordability, or just want to share your take on the market. Ciao for now!