Is the GTA Housing Correction Over? Winter Reset 2026, Confidence, Rates & Trade Risk

The GTA housing market didn’t just slow in 2025—it reset.

In this episode of Helping YOU Build Wealth Through Real Estate, Nico James-Bock, founder of The CondoWiz Group and broker with Keller Williams Toronto, breaks down what’s really happening beneath the headlines as we head into the 2026 spring market.

From falling prices and record-high inventory to rising unemployment, stubborn inflation, trade uncertainty, and Ottawa’s push to boost first-time buying, this episode connects the dots between the economy and real estate so you can make smarter decisions with confidence. This isn’t hype—it’s a reality check.

What you’ll learn in this episode:

• Why GTA home prices are at their lowest since early 2021 but buyers remain cautious
• How rising unemployment and youth job losses impact housing demand
• Why mortgage rates may already be near cyclical lows and what that means for buyers
• How immigration drives long-term housing demand but doesn’t fix affordability challenges
• What Class A, Trophy, and Class B/C office vacancy trends reveal about downtown recovery
• Why CUSMA trade uncertainty matters more to housing than most people realize
• How Ottawa’s new first-time buyer incentives affect cash flow and pricing pressures
• The key economic dates that will shape buyer, seller, and investor decisions this spring

This is a positioning market. Buyers who move before confidence fully returns gain leverage. Sellers who price realistically outperform. Investors who focus on fundamentals, not fear, build lasting wealth.

If you’re buying, selling, or investing in 2026 and want a strategy grounded in facts—not headlines—listen, engage, and let’s build your real estate wealth the right way, brick by brick.

Let's stay connected

Ciao ciao 👋🏼

Transcript

Podcast Title: Helping YOU Build Wealth Through Real Estate
Host: Nico James-Bock

Welcome back to the show. I’m Nico James-Bock, founder of The CondoWiz Group and broker with Keller Williams Toronto.
We need to have a serious conversation about the GTA housing market because what we saw in 2025 wasn’t just a typical seasonal slowdown—it was a full-scale reset. As we look toward the 2026 spring market, there is a lot of noise in the headlines, and my goal today is to help you cut through that hype with a much-needed reality check.
Right now, we are seeing home prices at levels we haven't touched since early 2021. On paper, that sounds like a massive opportunity, yet buyers are still incredibly cautious. Why? Well, it’s because we’re connecting the dots to the broader economy. We’re seeing rising unemployment—particularly hitting the youth demographic—and stubborn inflation that’s keeping everyone on edge.
We also have to look at the mortgage landscape. There’s a lot of talk about rates, but the reality is we might already be sitting near the cyclical lows. If you’re waiting for rates to bottom out further, you might be missing the window where you actually have the most leverage.
Beyond just the residential side, I’m watching the downtown recovery closely. When you look at the vacancy trends between "Trophy" Class A office spaces versus the older Class B and C buildings, it tells a story about where the city is headed. Combine that with the uncertainty surrounding CUSMA trade negotiations and the long-term impact of immigration—which drives demand but doesn't necessarily solve the affordability crisis—and you see a very complex picture.
Ottawa is trying to step in with new incentives for first-time buyers. While these are designed to help, they also create new pressures on pricing and cash flow that you need to be aware of. We have several key economic dates coming up this spring that are going to be the ultimate deciders for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.
Ultimately, this is a "positioning" market. If you’re a buyer, the time to move is before general confidence fully returns—that’s when you have the upper hand. If you’re a seller, you have to price realistically to outperform the competition. And for the investors out there: focus on the fundamentals, not the fear. That is how you build lasting wealth.
If you’re planning a move in 2026 and you want a strategy grounded in hard facts rather than sensational headlines, let’s get to work. We’re building wealth the right way—brick by brick.
Would you like me to create a summary of the specific 2026 economic dates mentioned so you can add them to your show notes?

https://linktr.ee/nicojamesbock

TheCondoWiz@gmail.com

WhatsApp: +1 (416) 709-3884

Ciao ciao 👋🏼